Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
